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Daily Briefing – Wednesday, April 5, 2017


The OECD informs us that global inflation has been rising for the past 6 months, presenting what they describe as a “watershed year for central bankers”. Unfortunately, most of the motivation comes from rising oil and food prices, and the trend is not uniform across all countries – thus possibly unstable. The FTSE yesterday ended a 3-day losing streak, rising half a percent primarily on mining stock and a weak pound, erasing a similar drop on Monday. Mining and oil also rallied throughout the rest of the continent, pushing up the CAC by a third and the Dax by a quarter. Retail sales exceeded expectations with a 0.7% increase (1.8% YoY).


Yesterday’s Atlanta Fed forecast puts 1st quartser GDP this year at 1.2%, nearly half last year’s final quarter. US factory orders rose by 1% in February, which is 7% YoY but only 0.3% when defense and aircraft orders are subtracted. The trade balance shrank to $46bn, with imports down and exports slightly up. The stock market ended slightly higher yesterday as Friday’s labor data and the Trump Jinping meeting draw closer, with the US-China trade deficit now down 26.6% to $23Bn in February.


Commodity gains helped Asian markets close up across the board overnight. The Yen edged upward yesterday with the central bank’s core CPI reported down 0.1%. The economy has been improving thanks to rising exports, but domestic consumption remains weak and inflation low. And for the first time ever, in what is a growing scramble, a US cross-border payment firm has acquired a Chinese blockchain platform, which stands to shorten payment processing between US and Chinese partners from days to hours.


WTI this morning is rising above 51.35 and Brent – 54.45 after last night’s API report showed a 1.8mB drawdown in inventories, with refineries working around the clock to keep up with heightened demand. And gold is at a 2 month high following 3 upward sessions as markets await the Trump Jinping meeting



Week’s Events

7:45-8:30 AM GMT

Italy, France. Germany, EU & UK: Markit Services & Composite PMIs

2:30 PM GMT

EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change


US: FOMC Minutes – 4 hours after the US’ PMIs & ADP Employment report

11:50 PM GMT

Japan: Foreign Investments

1:45 AM GMT (+1)

China: Caixin Services PMI

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